Year in Review 2024: Five years on, CREA’s research continues to bolster the front lines of the energy transition

2024 marked the five year anniversary of the creation of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). In a year of both strong progress and setbacks in the energy transition – the reelection of Donald Trump as US president who is again withdrawing from the Paris agreement, a COP29 mired in controversy, and Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine with the help of sustained fossil fuel exports – CREA maintained forward momentum, continuing to refine and develop our best research tools to further our work in supporting the transition to clean energy and clean air.

In addition to rigorously covering China’s bumpy road to decarbonisation, CREA played a pioneering role in the public debate on China’s upcoming Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), with analyses which were well received by overseas diplomats as tools to hold China to its global commitments.

CREA was also among the first to bring visibility to the emissions challenges stymying competitiveness in Indonesia’s basic metals industries, laying the groundwork for deeper conversations on the country’s industrial emissions in 2025.

In India, CREA stepped up work on revealing the state of the air quality in the country with the introduction of a monthly air quality snapshot, which quickly became a go-to resource for domestic and overseas media covering the air pollution crisis. 

As Russia continued out-maneuvering fossil fuel sanctions to fill its war chest, CREA dug deeper into the role of the ‘shadow’ tankers and also helped to expose the imports of Taiwan, Czechia, Bulgaria, and Azerbaijan, among others, presenting both stakeholders and policymakers new data to consider.

CREA’s work also expanded into new geographies with health impact assessments (HIA) shedding light on the extent of the impact of decades of industrial air pollution on both local and transboundary populations.     

It is this groundbreaking and tireless work that led CREA to be recognised as a ‘top mind’ in Table Briefing’s 2024 Top Climate 100. 2025 promises to be just as challenging and rewarding.  

As Ukraine invasion nears third year, CREA doesn’t waiver

Revealing new sanctions loopholes as they appear 

CREA worked throughout 2024 to expose the myriad clandestine routes by which Russian oil and gas are still finding their way into global markets and sanctioning countries specifically, despite sanctions. 

CREA’s joint report with the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) launched in May revealed that Turkey has emerged as a strategic pitstop for Russian fuel products rerouted to the EU. With the help of investigative reporting by Politico, this analysis prompted an investigation by the European Union’s anti-fraud office, OLAF.

In June, several months after CREA exposed the EU’s imports and proposed an LNG price cap, the EU began sanctioning vessels while the UK added four oil tankers to their sanctions list. Within the same month, the EU introduced the first sanctions on Russian gas in its 14th sanctions package along with a transshipment ban of Russian LNG in EU ports. 

Additionally, CREA revealed that the Czech Republic was exploiting the EU’s exemptions on its Russian oil ban, sending EUR 7 bn to the Kremlin via fossil fuel purchases, over five times more money than it provided in aid to Ukraine. CREA presented their analysis to the Minister for Trade and Industry in Czechia and at the Forum 2000 conference which hosted attendees including the President of Czechia, Nancy Pelosi and the former president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen. As a result of pressure on the Government, Czechia has stated that it will end reliance on Russian crude oil imports by mid-2025. 

The risks of Russian ‘shadow’ tankers become manifest

In 2024, CREA remained vigilant in its work to expose Russia’s ongoing use of ‘shadow’ tankers to circumvent EU sanctions on Russian crude. Novel analysis was published by CREA highlighting the environmental risks that dubiously insured Russian ‘shadow’ tankers pose on coastal states and marine ecosystems whilst also boosting finances that fuel the Kremlin’s war-chest. 

In July 2024, one day after the CREA release of an analysis on the impact of the adding ‘shadow’ tankers to the sanctions list, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that 11 more tankers would be added on the UK sanctions list – 18 more were added in October.  

CREA’s research on ‘shadow’ LNG tankers also saw measurable impact – in August, the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned seven LNG carriers and four newly built tankers that were likely produced to transport Russian gas from the sanctioned Arctic LNG-2 installation. The UK followed suit, sanctioning five LNG tankers loaded with gas from Arctic LNG-2 in September and an additional four LNG tankers in October. CREA continues to measure the impact of sanctions and present analysis to key policy makers in the EU, US and UK.

In December, two aging Russian oil tankers ran aground off Ukraine’s Moscow-annexed Crimean coastline, reportedly spilling thousands of tonnes of low-grade fuel into the Black Sea. Whether these ships were indeed ‘shadow’ tankers depends on which of the varying definitions of the term is used, but the accident nevertheless laid bare the potential dangers of the old tankers with inadequate insurance and oversight that are being used to transport Russia’s oil. Global media outlets such as Reuters cited CREA’s work in relation to the incident, revealing how robust CREA’s data is.

CREA compiled a list of 29 core ‘shadow’ tankers that transport a quarter of all Russia’s crude oil which was sent and presented to policymakers in key sanctioning regions. As of the second week of 2025, 28 out of the 29 tankers have been added to either the UK, US or EU list of sanctioned tankers. 

A major Russian coal buyer divests following CREA’s efforts

In July, CREA joined with Taiwan-based non-profit, the Environmental Rights Foundation, and German-based non-profit Ecodefense to release a report revealing that Taiwan had imported USD 3.5 billion of Russian coal since the start of the invasion of Ukraine by way of private companies, with imports having risen 31% in the last 12 months at the time of publication.

Two months later, following closed-door meetings with CREA, Taiwan Cement Corporation (TCC), announced that it would no longer purchase Russian coal, a major step forward in Taiwan’s path to divesting from Russian coal imports entirely. Following our project in Taiwan, the islands’ imports of Russian coal fell 37% (EUR 217 million) between August and the end of December 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.  

The refining loophole

In early 2024, CREA published analysis on the refining loophole in the UK and globally, too. The investigation showed how Russian crude oil is refined in non-sanctioning countries, and these oil products then legally flow into sanctioning countries at increasing quantities which is financing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The analysis was covered by the BBC and CNN and presented to policymakers. 

Grading China’s emissions progress 

China’s journey to decarbonisation took various turns throughout 2024, and CREA was a top voice at each fork in the road. Early in the year, our analysis highlighted that clean energy was the top driver of China’s economic growth in 2023. As the nation works toward its goal of peaking carbon emissions before 2030, advancing clean energy and building a green economy have become strategic priorities. This commitment was underscored in August 2024, when China announced its “Green Transition” as the central pillar of its economic, energy, and climate policies.

China started the year off track to meet several climate targets the country had set for 2025 as a result of an increase in coal use and investment in coal power. However, CREA and Global Energy Monitor’s H1 2024 survey of China’s coal power projects in China found that the country’s massive renewable energy (RE) additions may be dampening coal-based development, with new RE installations proving capable of meeting all incremental power demands.

In March, CREA’s latest analysis of China’s steel industry highlighted the industry’s excess capacity and slow progress in climate transition. Two months after the report’s release, China’s State Council issued the 2024-2025 Action Plan on Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction, which re-emphasised steel output control and increased the share of low-carbon steel. CREA’s follow-up report in July revealed that in the first half of 2024, no new coal-based steelmaking projects were permitted for the first time on a half-yearly basis since China announced its ‘dual carbon goals’ in 2020, and in August, China officially suspended all new steel plant permits.

In 2024, CREA also diligently put out analyses shaping global expectations around China’s NDC targets. Analysis from CREA Lead Analyst Lauri Myllyvirta in particular was well received by stakeholders and cited in the UN Environmental Program (UNEP) emissions gap report 2024, as well as reviewed by advisors and policymakers in China.

CREA’s annual climate transition outlook report released in November found that CO₂ emissions for the full year were on track to be flat or record a small increase, with the report expert survey still showing confidence in a possible peak in 2025, and more than half of respondents expecting a coal consumption peak in the same year.

CREA also continued to track and analyze China’s air quality, contributing to improved monitoring and control of air pollution in China. 

Throughout 2024, CREA strengthened outreach and engagement with policymakers, directly feeding into the preparation of diplomatic exchanges between Europe and China. Through this, CREA’s analyses helped to shape informed decision-making on both sides about bilateral exchanges. 

Indonesia sets bold fossil fuel phase-out goals  

During the G20 Summit on 19 November 2024, newly inaugurated Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto shared his vision to stop coal-fired and all other fossil fuel power generation in the next 15 years and to build more than 75 GW of renewable energy within the same period. Praising the ambitious new targets, CREA responded with data indicating that making Prabowo’s vision a reality required more than doubling clean energy targets.

Captive dominates Indonesia’s coal power capacity

In CREA’s second annual report on the state of Indonesia’s captive coal power, CREA and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) found that the majority of Indonesia’s 15% increase in coal power capacity compared to the previous year’s report came from industry. This sizable growth in captive coal is expected to continue and reach 26.24 GW by 2026, which is greater than the total coal plant capacity of all of Australia in 2023 – and would put captive in the largest share of Indonesia’s coal generation at nearly 40%. 

Breaking ground on Indonesia basic metals research

CREA’s work in Indonesia started 2024 with a landmark report on the state of the country’s nickel industry and its related emissions profiles, assessing health and environmental impacts from pollution released through coal-intensive nickel processing and captive coal power generation. The sector had previously received little attention and few attempts to identify capacities and companies involved.

CREA’s analysis on nickel industrial complexes in three provinces that are home to nickel reserves – Central and Southeast Sulawesi, and North Maluku – found that while the government has an ambition to develop nickel-to-battery production domestically through downstreaming, the majority of operating production is still made up of coal-based pyrometallurgical process that is energy- and emissions-intensive, supplying low-grade nickel for stainless steel production.

Our analysis shows that exposure to air pollutants released from smelting and captive coal power generation would cause health and environmental harms – causing nearly 5,000 deaths or USD 3.42 billion in economic burden in 2030, and incurring loss of livelihood for farmers and fishermen living in the vicinity of industrial areas of up to IDR 3.64 trillion in the next 15 years due to declining water, soil, and air quality. 

Highlighting unaccounted losses in health, the environment, and the regional economy, the report served as an entry point for national discussions. The release of the report in February was attended by officials from the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime and Investment Affairs and Just Economic Transition Partnership (JETP) Secretariat.

The study has since been widely cited in national and international media, documentaries, and used as one of the key references in studies that highlight the need to strengthen ESG principles — notably, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bahlil Lahadia’s thesis on nickel downstreaming, the National Human Rights Commission’s study on human rights impacts from national strategic projects, and Sulawesi Tanpa Polusi coalition’s call for a revision in captive coal power exemption.

In December, CREA released its groundbreaking report on Indonesia’s iron and steel industry. While investments in the industry have rapidly increased, most steel projects are still using outdated and polluting blast oxygen furnaces (BOF) technology, with only a small fraction using low emissions electric arc furnaces (EAF), and all ironmaking capacities using blast furnaces (BF).

Amid a larger global shift away from emissions intensive technologies, CREA advocated for setting roadmaps and enforcing binding climate targets to safeguard the industry’s competitiveness while showcasing Indonesia’s commitments towards industrial near zero and global net zero.

Putting public health first as the benefit of linking climate and clean air

Despite the lack of effective air quality interventions in recent years, CREA continues to highlight that actions in all sectors are essential in tackling air pollution, and recognises industrial thermal power plants as one of the sectors with great potential in pollution reduction. The report released in June shows that the two pilot early retirement projects tagged under JETP would only partially address air pollution, and reveals the other top ten coal power plants with the highest health impacts along with the two ageing complexes located in Java, that would help the country avoid five-fold of future impacts.     

Monthly India PM2.5 report becomes go-to source for media  

In India, CREA started 2024 with its annual update on India’s progress in their National Clean Air Programme (NCAP), which faced various challenges and shortcomings in 2023. 

CREA also began monthly monitoring of India’s air quality situation in early 2024 with its India snapshot, which garnered attention not only from domestic media but leading international outlets such as CNN and the Wall Street Journal, indicating reviving global awareness CREA’s data has drawn to the severity of air pollution in India. 

To further step up air quality monitoring, CREA also launched a daily India Air Quality Bulletin Dashboard

Meanwhile, CREA’s report on India’s SO₂ (sulfur dioxide) emissions released in November received a strong media response, directly leading to India’s top environmental court requesting more information from regulators on coal fired power plant (CFPP) emissions. According to CREA’s analysis, less than 8% of the total CFPP electricity generation capacity in India has installed flue gas desulphurization (FGD) to control SO₂ emissions. The installation of FGD systems on a national level could lead to a massive 64% reduction in SO₂ emissions.

Health impact assessments (HIAs) expose big polluters in new geographies


In 2024, CREA’s groundbreaking health impact assessments (HIA) continued to expose the sources of air pollution crises in new geographies, such as Latin America, as well as the former Soviet Union, and Europe.

Bulgaria air pollution litigation hits a milestone

CREA started 2024 with an HIA that found that coal fired power plant (CFPP)-created air pollutant levels in Bulgaria – one of the most polluted countries in Europe – lead to roughly 333 deaths per year. This, combined with other non-fatal illnesses, cost an estimated EUR 742 million per annum, equivalent to 0.9% of Bulgaria’s GDP, and comparable to the nation’s military and defence budget.

Released in January, the CREA report directly preceded the Administrative Court in Stara Zagora’s ruling that exempting Maritsa Iztok 2 – the biggest state-owned coal plant in the Balkans – from meeting the EU’s newer and stricter emission norms was illegal. The ruling was the result of a people-powered five year campaign initiated by Greenpeace Bulgaria and Friends of the Earth Bulgaria (Za Zemiata) with the support of ClientEarth.

CREA’s HIA team also revealed that the former ArcelorMittal steel plant in Temirtau, Kazakhstan that caused black snow also caused air pollution that contributed to thousands of deaths in the vicinity of Temirtau and led to billions of dollars in health damages. 

Empowering air pollution litigation in Latin America 

CREA also exposed how the Luxembourg-based Ternium’s steel plant in the outskirts of Rio de Janeiro, Brasil has had a devastating impact on the health of the local population due to emitting deadly air pollutants that reach as far as São Paulo and have led to over one thousand deaths and cost over two billion USD in healthcare costs since 2010.

In a world-first HIA study in late 2024, CREA also uncovered the impact of the Ventanas coal-fired complex in Chile on public health and the economy. The report – which found that the complex not only significantly worsens air pollution, public health and the economy, but also affects areas up to 300 km away such as the capital, Santiago – was featured in an in-depth local documentary exploring the issue, which included an interview with CREA researchers.

Holding the line for clean air in South Africa

After a busy year in 2023 exposing the impacts of South Africa’s heavy reliance on coal power  – with weak or no air pollution controls – 2024 also saw CREA continuing to highlight the implications of the evasion of air pollution control regulations by South Africa’s national energy provider Eskom. CREA’s work in South Africa will continue in the new year with  2025  Minimum Emission Standards (MES) deadlines on the horizon and much more to be done to clean up the country’s dirty energy sector, which has the dirtiest coal plants in the world.

Charging ahead in 2025

In 2024, CREA’s diligent efforts worldwide helped us to stay in step with the global situation as it evolved, and in doing so further established CREA’s presence as a crucial component in global decarbonisation. In just five years, CREA has become a first line source of energy and air pollution data for journalists, policymakers, and civil society organisations working to secure the clean air that is the birthright of every human being on the planet.

With many challenges waiting in the wings in 2025 – an incoming US regime that intends to withdraw from global climate commitments, growing political instability and energy uncertainty in Europe, and ongoing severe air pollution crises in Africa and Asia – CREA enters 2025 prepared to rise to those challenges.