China’s clean energy trends could cut emissions by 30% in 2035 if sustained

A scorecard for China’s new climate targets

As the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, China’s new 2035 climate targets will determine whether global climate goals under the Paris Agreement can be met. To enable the achievement of these goals, China must set a strong but achievable target of reducing emissions by at least 30% by 2035.

In a period of global volatility, China has a vital opportunity to reaffirm its leadership in multilateralism and drive global climate action. Whilst there are currently no indications of what targets policymakers in Beijing are considering, they would benefit from capitalising on recent positive developments and establishing clear policies for China’s decarbonisation pathway to ensure China’s credibility as a responsible major power.

CREA’s scorecard provides benchmarks for emission reductions and recommended policy targets in different sectors that could be included in China’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to put the country on track to its national climate targets in line with the Paris Agreement.

Benchmarks

  • CO2 emissions: China can achieve at least 30% CO2 emission reductions overall by 2035 compared to 2023. An absolute emission reduction target set by the central government would be critical to achieving this reduction.
  • Non-CO2 emissions: By including a target on the reduction of non-CO2 emissions in its NDCs or a separate plan, China could achieve a reduction of at least 35% of these gases by 2035, which account for a sixth of China’s total emissions.
  • Electricity: By continuing the current rate of renewables expansion, China could cut  30% of emissions from the electricity sector and increase the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption to above 40%. This would require a renewables capacity of 5,000GW by 2035 and halting approvals of all new unabated coal power plants.
  • Industry: Industrial emissions will have to decline by at least 25% by 2035, driven in particular by more than 45% emission cuts from the steel sector and more than 20% from the cement sector. This would require increasing the share of low-carbon steelmaking, such as electric arc furnace (EAF) and hydrogen-based, to above 30% as well as expanding China’s National Emission Trading Scheme to other sectors and introducing an annually declining cap on emissions.
  • Transport: Emissions from the transport sector will need to return to 2020 levels. This can be achieved through increasing electric vehicle (EV) sales to 60% of all vehicle sales – current sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids already represent over 50% of all vehicle sales. Rail freight, meanwhile, should increase to 25% with an additional target set for rail passengers.
  • Building: Building emissions will have to decline by at least 40% by 2035, requiring all new buildings to meet low-carbon standards; 25% of existing buildings to be retrofitted; and the share of heat pumps and other renewable heating to reach 40% by 2035.
  • Forest coverage / natural sinks: Increase land cover of afforestation and reforestation by at least 15% by 2035, compared to 2025.

Authors: Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst; Belinda Schaepe, China Policy Analyst. Contributor: Chengcheng Qiu, China Analyst

China, Global