After more than a quarter century of operations, steel giant ArcelorMittal left Temirtau, Kazakhstan in December 2023 with a payout of USD 985 million from the government for the purchase of the Temirtau coal-based (blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace, BF-BOF) steel plant that was under their ownership and management from 1996 to 2023.

Decades of accidents and deaths led the government to show ArcelorMittal the door yet the legacy of harm to the local population continues and the latest health impact assessment (HIA) from CREA finds that the Temirtau steel plant caused air pollution that contributed to thousands of deaths in the vicinity of Temirtau and led to billions of dollars in health damages.

While ArcelorMittal owned the plant, local communities were exposed to dangerous levels of toxic air pollutants (PM2.5, NO2, SO2). This air pollution is estimated to have led to 3,000 deaths due to ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and diabetes, 190 preterm births, 2,600 cases of childhood asthma, as well as numerous illnesses leading to 326,000 days of work absences, which could have cost USD 4.2 billion (approx. KZT 1.9 trillion).

High levels of fly ash (e.g. rates 0.06 kg/ha/year) were also found to be emitted into the atmosphere from the burning of coal at the Temirtau steel plant. Fly ash returns to the surface of the Earth either due to gravity or precipitation (rain, snow) and the high levels of fly ash deposition suggest that the Temirtau steel plant contributes to the ‘black snow’ that has been observed in the city of Temirtau.

Key findings

• This study calculates the impact of the Temirtau steel plant on air pollution, public health, and the economy while under the ownership and management of ArcelorMittal from 1996 to 2023. 
• We estimate that air pollution from the Temirtau steel plant (PM_2.5, NO₂, SO₂) has contributed to the death of 3,000 people (95% confidence interval: 2,000–4,400) in the surrounding vicinity.
• We estimate that exposure to PM_2.5 from the Temirtau steel plant has led to deaths among the local adult population due to ischaemic heart disease (410), stroke (170), lower respiratory infections (83), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (70), lung cancer (42), and diabetes (25), as well as 9 children under the age of 5, due to lower respiratory infections.
• Our calculations reveal that exposure to pollution from Temirtau has also led to 250 (150–350) visits to the emergency room due to asthma, 700 (150–1,600) new cases of asthma in children, 2,600 (640–5,600) children suffering from asthma, 190 (91–200) preterm births, 130 (41–230) low birth weights, and 326,000 (220,000–300,000) days of work absences.
• As a result of these health effects (both the deaths and non-fatal illnesses), air pollution from Temirtau could have cost USD 4.2 (2.7–6.1) billion, which is equivalent to KZT 1.9 (1.2–2.8) trillion.
• High rates of fly ash deposition have been produced from the burning of coal within the Temirtau steel plant and contribute to the black snow that has been observed in the city of Temirtau.
• As ArcelorMittal exited Kazakhstan at the end of 2023 with a payout of USD 985 million from a state-owned direct investment fund for the purchase of the Temirtau steel plant, we estimate that ArcelorMittal also left behind USD 4.2 billion in health-related damages.

Methodology In this study, estimates were made of how pollutant emissions from the Temirtau steel plant affect air quality, public health, and the economy, whilst this facility was operated by ArcelorMittal from 1996 to 2023. To achieve this, a rigorous air quality and health impact assessment (HIA) was performed for the year 2022, and then scaled for the remainder of the time period based on changes in Kazakhstan national steel production. Firstly, pollutant emissions data were retrieved from ArcelorMittal official documents for the calendar year 2022. Secondly, a meteorological and air dispersion model was used to simulate how emissions from the facility are transported in the atmosphere and maps of the distribution of pollutants in the atmosphere for the year 2022 were produced. Thirdly, effects on public health after exposure to these pollutants were calculated by combining the maps of pollutant concentrations with data that describes the toxicity and population data (e.g., population density, age, baseline health incidence, etc.). Finally, the annual impacts for 2022 were scaled by annual changes in national steel production in order to estimate the cumulative impacts over the entire period that the steel plant was owned by ArcelorMittal (1996–2023). See the report for complete methodology.