When the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, invaded Ukraine in February 2022, CREA sharpened the best tool we had available to come to the aid of Ukraine: data. Within a few weeks, CREA set up the Russia Fossil Tracker, establishing the foundation for CREA’s work over the next two years. Building on new data products, CREA released several reports that brought out the changes in oil trade between Russia and the rest of the world. Some of these reports have had direct impacts – from a US senator proposing a new bill, to our findings being presented to Bulgaria’s cabinet, including its prime minister.
Not just in Russia but globally, the year 2023 showed the incredible impacts sound research can have. In South Africa, CREA’s reports exposed the impacts of the non-compliance of Eskom – the country’s largest electricity producer – to environmental norms and helped local lawyers in their fight for clean air, while in India, CREA began to shed light on degrading air quality in tier-II and tier-III cities that are overlooked by the policy-makers and by mainstream media. With China being a key player in the fight against climate change, CREA focused closely on the country’s energy and emission trends with a new monthly snapshot.
In Indonesia, CREA’s work assessed the country’s air quality, its impact on public health, the economic impacts of different phase-out scenarios, and was presented to government officials on a public platform. Our source apportionment studies challenged the government’s efforts to downplay the impact of coal-fired power plants while exposing its weak policy measures to tackle air pollution.
Russia
Keeping track
The EU’s and G7’s sanctions against Russian oil are a significant recent measure in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, CREA introduced an in-depth monthly analysis to track Russian fossil fuel flows. These analyses soon became a go-to source for media, policymakers and academics, among others, ensuring continued focus on the impact of sanctions and the need to accelerate the energy transition to disarm the world’s petro-dictatorships like Russia.
Quantifying shadows
Soon after the EU and other countries announced sanctions against Russia for trading crude oil and oil products, Russia increased its operations, attempting to circumvent the oil price cap policy by transporting its oil on ‘shadow’ tankers that do not rely on Western-owned or insured ships. The media was rife with articles on how the sanctions had failed, setting a false narrative on Russia’s supposed victory in finding these loopholes. Building upon data from the Russia sanction tracker, CREA’s report on ‘shadow’ tankers was the first to quantify the extent of Putin’s tactics to circumvent measures in September. In October 2023, a month after CREA’s findings were published, the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC ) began sanctioning ‘shadow’ tankers.
Exposing loopholes
In late 2023, CREA’s investigative analysis with the Centre for the Study of Democracy and Global Witness revealed that Bulgaria’s exemption to the EU ban on Russian oil has sent an estimated EUR 1.13 billion in tax revenue to the Kremlin, directly funding Russia’s atrocities in Ukraine. In the first ten months of 2023 alone, Bulgaria became the fourth-largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil, behind India, China and Turkey. The investigation highlighted how Russian-owned company Lukoil had exploited the loopholes in the sanctions to export EUR 984 million in the first ten months of 2023 rather than adhere to the aim of the derogation and ensure domestic supply of petrol. The investigation results were presented at a conference in Sofia, which the Bulgarian Prime Minister, Nikolay Denkov, the EU’s public prosecutor, Laura Codruta Kövesi, and other EU commission officials attended. CREA analysts were invited to an emergency meeting at the Bulgarian Council of Ministers to go over the findings. Following this, the Bulgarian government announced its decision to end the exemption on 1 March 2024, instead of the previous self-imposed date of 31 October 2024, to cut off the flow of Russian oil into Europe. Bulgaria’s ex-Prime Minister and current politician Kiril Petkov stated that the early end of Bulgaria’s exemption would cost the Russian government EUR 700 million in lost tax revenues.
Whitewashing
Building on the data collected for the Russia Fossil Tracker, CREA’s report on ‘laundromat’ countries exposed how some countries that do not impose sanctions are buying Russian crude oil and selling the refined products to those who are. In light of the new data, US Congressman Lloyd Doggett introduced a bill to the House of Representatives that proposes the US government ban importing petroleum products made from Russian-origin oil.
China
March 2023 marked a symbolic milestone for China as its non-fossil power generation capacity exceeded its nominal thermal power capacity, highlighting the country’s world-leading additions of clean electricity. There is, however, still some way to go before power generation from clean sources overtakes coal. At the same time, the country’s carbon emissions rebounded in 2023 after dipping in 2022. This was caused by the collapse of hydropower owing to historically low rains, driving up the demand for coal power. The reopening of the economy after nearly three years of zero-COVID and blistering power demand growth also played a role.
As one of the most critical countries in the global fight to mitigate carbon emissions to tackle climate change, China’s climate transition is in the spotlight, and CREA has been tracking it by benchmarking the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions, total energy supply, carbon emissions and energy trends in key sectors against transition pathways aligned with the Paris Agreement goals.
CREA’s assessment found multiple indicators on track in 2023, such as clean energy investments, electrification, building sector emissions, steel and cement output, and electric vehicle sales.
However, some indicators were off track, for example, total energy consumption, industrial energy consumption, transport energy consumption, and buildings’ energy consumption. With increasing investments and contributions to the country’s GDP, for the first time, clean energy and clean tech cemented their role in China’s economic policies.
The impressive growth in renewable energy and the rapid increase in summertime electricity peak loads have created the demand for a more flexible electricity system, nudging the government to develop new coal power. CREA’s research revealed the opportunities and challenges in developing a flexible electricity system while addressing near-term power shortages and making the case for zero addition of new coal power.
At the end of the year, China’s State Council released a new national air quality action plan in an attempt to inject new momentum into the country’s efforts to fight air pollution. Through an opinion piece, CREA pointed out that 2023 was the first time average pollution levels increased year-on-year since the national air pollution plans were implemented. CREA also pointed out that ground-level ozone pollution has been rising nationwide and worsened by carbon-intensive industries.
India
After a brief COVID-19-induced hiatus, concerns over India’s worsening air quality resurfaced in the national media amongst policymakers and the general public. News and conversations were stuck in false solutions like anti-smog guns and water sprinklers or were limited to the episodic nature of the event. Even these solutions were limited to major cities, leaving the rest of the country under the pall of air pollution levels that were 30 times the recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO).
The land-locked region of the Indo-Gangetic Plain, covering an area of about 700,000 square kilometres and home to nearly 40% of the country’s population, is grossly overlooked by Indian policymakers. In early 2023, CREA’s report, ‘Status assessment of graded response action plan implementation in the Indo-Gangetic Plain’, highlighted the poor, sometimes entirely lacking, infrastructure and a systematic plan to mitigate the emission of toxic pollutants during heavy pollution days.
To further highlight the gravity of the air quality situation across India and not only in Delhi and the surrounding region, especially during the autumn and winter months, CREA began putting out daily air quality bulletins in late 2023, highlighting the top 10 cities at national level, as well as for states like Maharashtra and Bihar.
CREA analysts call for emission load-based reduction targets and air-shed-level policies.
Health impact assessments (HIA)
In collaboration with several regional non-governmental organisations (NGOs), CREA’s health impact assessment (HIA) team published several reports that quantify the impact of coal-fired plants on public health in different regions around the world.
South Africa
South Africa is still heavily dependent on coal, which supplies around 90% of the country’s electricity generation. This overt reliance on an old and dying technology calls for more stringent enforcement of environmental laws. Eskom – the state-owned electricity supplier that meets 95% of the country’s demands – has been violating government norms and delaying its plan to decommission coal-fired power plants.
CREA’s work in South Africa has proven to be critical. CREA’s reports have been used in multiple court cases and gained wide media attention, including featuring on South Africa’s national radio, as well as in international media, such as Bloomberg.
CREA’s investigation revealed that enforcing compliance with national standards at Eskom plants would prevent 34,400 deaths by toxic air. Installing the best available technologies to reduce emissions would result in 57,000 deaths being avoided by the end of the coal-fired plant’s lifetime (latest 2070). Furthermore, CREA research revealed that Eskom’s prolonged delays in decommissioning old plants could lead to an additional 15,000 deaths.
Japan
CREA’s work in Japan proved crucial in countering the government’s proposal to prolong the lifetime of coal-fired power plants by mixing coal with ammonia. The Japanese government claims this is a sustainable and clean transition that will reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and several other global leaders validated this view during Japan’s G20 presidency. CREA’s findings revealed that this energy transition would worsen the country’s air quality. CREA’s research was presented in several webinars and received crucial media coverage in publications like the Japan Times and Bloomberg.
Indonesia
Despite the impacts of climate change being very real for Indonesia, the country’s dependence on coal is concerning, and politicians, along with government representatives, have intentionally withheld information from the public to the extent of spreading misleading claims and dismissive statements to downplay the public health impacts of coal-powered power plants. Much of CREA’s work in 2023 has been to counter this and remain steadfast in providing evidence-based insights on air pollution.
CREA’s HIA on the Banten-Suralaya complex, for instance, reveals that it has terrible consequences for the population across northwestern Java and impacts the cities of Serang, Cilegon and Jakarta – which have been in an air pollution crisis for years – and officials at the complex evade real solutions. Countering the government’s attempts to downplay the impact of coal-fired power plants, CREA’s analysis shows that fine particles from nearby coal plants contribute to Jakarta’s yearly spikes in air pollution.
CREA also assessed the government’s USD 20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETP) investment to phase out coal-fired power plants, looking at the air quality, public health and economic impacts of various phase-out scenarios. These findings were presented to government officials on a public platform, where they were open to questions and were given the opportunity to publicly comment on current policy decisions and perspectives on the recommendations.
CREA’s response to Indonesia’s Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP) for JETP highlights the lack of commitment to retiring coal power plants based on the 30-year lifetime the investment plan assumes, along with the pressing need to map out captive coal power retirement considering its massive growth in the past decade. CREA also noted the absence of consideration for strengthened air pollutant emissions limits despite the urgent public health benefits that must be safeguarded as Indonesia plans and implements the nation’s energy transition strategy.
Leading the way into 2024
The ongoing global crisis – on all fronts, including war, extreme and historic climate events and economic disparities – continued to unravel in 2023. The planet is also a year closer to the 2030 deadline set by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to reduce carbon emissions by nearly 50% of 2019 levels to prevent irreversible and catastrophic climate change.
A research organisation with a global presence, CREA has a front-seat view of some of the most critical developments in the energy transition. While some of the world’s largest emitters are heading towards cleaner energy sources, resources spent on climate adaptations for developing and vulnerable countries leave much to be desired. CREA has kept a close watch on the former. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for instance, pushed the EU and other developed countries to accelerate their transitions to renewable energy, while China has unleashed an unprecedented clean energy deployment and manufacturing boom. Despite its dramatic push towards solar, India continues to invest large sums in coal-fired power plants and mines.
CREA has also kept track of significant coal investments and trends in emissions – both greenhouse gases and air pollutants – while quantifying the public health impact. CREA’s analysts closely watched several key countries’ regional and national policies, including Pakistan, Indonesia, Japan and the EU.
CREA’s work in 2023 reflects its ethos and leads the way into 2024 – using credible data at the most granular level to understand global trends to ensure CREA’s policy recommendations are holistic and practical to implement, while ensuring the transition to clean energy is also just and equitable.