Weekly snapshot ‑ Russian fossil fuels 3 to 9 April 2023

NOTE: This weekly snapshot has been updated since publication on 13 April. The following graphs have been updated:
‘Fossil fuel shipment departures from Russia by ship ownership/insurer, from Baltic/Black Sea ports’, and the ‘Urals crude oil spot price’.
The ‘Note on methodology’ has also been updated.

Urals crude prices have climbed above the price cap level of USD 60. The East Siberia–Pacific Ocean (ESPO) price, mainly applying to Chinese purchases, climbed to and stayed at levels close to USD 75. This adds urgency to strengthening the enforcement of the price caps and lowering the price cap levels.

The week of 3 to 9 April 2023, China continued as the top importer of Russian fossil fuels, with the EU being second, Turkey third, South Korea fourth and Brazil fifth.

China’s imports consisted of crude oil, pipeline gas, LNG, oil products and chemicals and coal. EU imported pipeline gas and oil and oil products and chemicals. Turkey imported pipeline gas, crude oil and coal. South Korea imported crude oil, LNG and coal. Brazil imported oil products and chemicals.

Three of the top five ports importing Russian fossil fuels were in China, one in Turkey and one in South Korea. Crude oil and LNG featured in imported commodities.

The top five EU countries importing Russian fossil fuels were Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Austria and France.

The values of both crude oil and oil products shipments from Russia dropped last week.

The share of tankers covered by the price cap in crude oil shipments out of Russia is increasing and is close to 60%. For oil products and chemicals, the coverage of the price cap coalition inches towards 80%. For crude oil, the coverage is on the rise for shipments departing from Russia’s Baltic and Black sea ports, and for oil products and chemicals also from Pacific ports.

The amount of crude on water is recovering from a short‑term drop in the past week, while the amount of oil products has stopped building up but remains high. The LNG glut keeps building up. With all of these commodities the share of shipments “for orders” has widened, indicating Russia is struggling to find buyers.

Shipments in the last week

The weekly update of Russian fossil fuel exports was prepared by Meri Pukarinen, Europe-Russia Policy Officer, CREA; and Jan Lietava, Data Scientist/Engineer, CREA.

Note on methodology:
From 2023‑04‑03, our weekly snapshot values are no longer seasonally corrected, which may lead to some disparities between the preceding and following reports. We have also adjusted our time frame to show totals since the start of 2023 rather than the start of the invasion.
Dates featured are the date the arrival of the shipment was captured by our algorithm. 80% of arrivals for shipments are found within 4 days of the arrival portcall in the specific port. For our oil products and chemicals commodity group, please note this contains a wider range of items than just those specified in the current sanctions, as of 2022‑02‑05.
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