Weekly snapshot ‑ Russian fossil fuels 10 to 16 April 2023

Urals crude prices have climbed and stayed above the price cap level of USD 60. The East Siberia–Pacific Ocean (ESPO) price, mainly applying to Chinese purchases, stayed at levels close to USD 75. This adds urgency to strengthening the enforcement of the price caps and lowering the price cap levels – with levels above the price cap, tankers by the price cap coalition ought not to service transporting Russian crude.

The week of 10 to 16 April 2023, the EU fell to the fourth place as an importer of Russian fossil fuels, with China, India and Turkey in the top three. South Korea was the fifth largest importer. This illustrates the impact of European sanctions on Russian fossil fuels. 

China imported crude oil, coal, pipeline gas and LNG. India imported crude oil and coal. Turkey imported oil products&chemicals, pipeline gas and coal. The EU imported pipeline crude oil and gas, oil products&chemicals and LNG. South Korea imported crude oil, LNG and coal. 

Two of the top five ports importing Russian fossil fuels were in China, one in India, one in Turkey and one in Senegal. Crude oil and oil products&chemicals were the imported commodities.

The top EU countries importing Russian fossil fuels were Slovakia, Czech Republic, Malta, Austria and Hungary.

Russia’s revenues from crude oil have kept declining, whereas those from oil products&chemicals seem to plateau.

The share of tankers covered by the price cap in crude oil shipments out of Russia is around 55%. For oil products&chemicals, the coverage of the price cap coalition is above 70%. For crude oil, the coverage is stable for shipments departing from Russia’s Baltic and Black sea ports, and falling from Pacific ports. For oil products&chemicals the coverage is plateauing or falling.

The amount of crude on water is dropping, while the amount of oil products seems to fall but remains high. The LNG glut continues to build.

Shipments in the last week

The weekly update of Russian fossil fuel exports was prepared by Meri Pukarinen, Europe-Russia Policy Officer, CREA; and Jan Lietava, Data Scientist/Engineer, CREA.

Note on methodology:

From 2023‑04‑03, our weekly snapshot values are no longer seasonally corrected, which may lead to some disparities between the preceding and following reports. We have also adjusted our time frame to show totals since the start of 2023 rather than the start of the invasion. Dates featured are the date the arrival of the shipment was captured by our algorithm. 80% of arrivals for shipments are found within 4 days of the arrival portcall in the specific port. For our oil products and chemicals commodity group, please note this contains a wider range of items than just those specified in the current sanctions, as of 2022‑02‑05.
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