Seize the moment: Indonesia can surpass national renewables targets by fast-tracking prospective projects

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Following President Prabowo Subianto’s annoucement of his vision to phase out Indonesia’s fossil fuel power and increase renewable energy (RE) by 75 gigawatts (GW) by 2040, Indonesia’s most recent National Electricity Plan 2024-2060 (Rencana Umum Ketenagalistrikan Nasional, RUKN), released in November 2024, has confirmed the commitment, and aims for 75.6 GW of renewable energy (RE) capacity by 2035, while pushing some ambitious targets forward to as early as 2030 in order to achieve Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2060 at the latest.

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) has analysed Indonesia’s national RUKN plan and finds that the current prospective clean energy projects, as tracked by the Global Energy Monitor (GEM) and totalling nearly 45 GW, could put the country on track to achieve and even surpass the RUKN’s 2030 RE capacity target of 38.4 GW.

To reach the capacity targets set beyond the end of this decade, more must be done. While the RUKN’s clean energy projects have now entered the construction, pre-construction, and announcement stage, only 30.6 GW have designated start years. The other 13.6 GW, which include 10.7 GW of solar energy, 1.8 GW of wind, and 1.1 GW of geothermal, still need to have their start years assigned. 

The realization of these projects will increase Indonesia’s electricity generation capacity to 58.5 GW, which is 77% of the RUKN 2035 target of 75.6 GW. To achieve the RUKN 2035 target from the current capacity of 13.5 GW, Indonesia still needs an additional 18 GW, which needs to be prioritized for immediate inclusion in national planning.

Solar power is best placed to ensure that the RUKN 75 GW target for RE is achieved ahead of the 2035 deadline. Indonesia currently has at least 16.5 GW of prospective solar projects, which is more than five times higher than the JETP Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP) (3.1 GW), and 30% higher than the 2030 RUKN solar target (12.8 GW). There is time to deploy more of the current projects before 2035 and even before 2030. Vietnam currently has 13 GW of utility-scale and 9.5 GW of rooftop solar, and China is the global leader in solar power (887 GW) with 277 GW alone deployed in 2024.



Katherine Hasan, Analyst, CREA; Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst, CREA

Indonesia