A global analysis of the health and economic impacts of emissions from major truck manufacturers: Daimler, Traton, Volvo, and Paccar
The transportation sector is a major source of emissions and a frequent focus of regulatory efforts. While some regions have strengthened emissions standards, others are reconsidering, delaying, or even rolling back key policies in response to economic and industry pressures. Despite its outsized contribution to pollution, medium- and heavy-duty trucking has largely escaped regulatory scrutiny, allowing emissions from the sector to remain persistently high.
This health impact assessment (HIA) assesses the air pollution, health, and economic impacts of nitrogen oxide (NOX) emissions from medium and heavy-duty trucks manufactured by Daimler, Traton, Volvo, and Paccar, analyzing the combined effects of vehicles sold over the last 10 years (2014–2023), including their historical emissions (2014–2023), and projected future emissions based on average vehicle lifetimes (2024–2040).
Over their lifetime (2014–2040), these trucks will emit 6,466 kilotons of NOX — which is equivalent to 60 times the total yearly human-caused NOX emissions in Sweden, eight times those in Germany, 30 times the annual road transport emissions in the UK, and ten times total highway vehicle NOX emissions across the United States.
These emissions will result in severe health consequences, including a projected 307,000 (187,000–494,000) deaths, 217,000 (50,000–469,000) new cases of childhood asthma, and 120 (103–139 million) million missed workdays.
The total economic cost of these health impacts is estimated at USD 1.4 (0.9–2.2) trillion, placing a significant burden on individuals, businesses, and public healthcare systems.
The estimated USD 1.4 trillion in health-related damages from these truck emissions is orders of magnitude larger than estimates for electric charging infrastructure costs. In the US, a charging infrastructure investment of USD 66 billion would support 1.4 million electric trucks by 2032, and in Europe, EUR 40 billion would be needed for anticipated large-scale electrification by 2040 (ICCT, 2024; McKinsey & Company. (2024b).
