Key findings
An analysis of the European Union (EU)’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) identified a year-on-year decline of 2.9% in 2024, following a steep 8.5% reduction in 2023, CREA’s early estimates suggest.
- The reduction in emissions was driven primarily by decreased coal consumption in the power sector.
- Power sector emissions declined by 17% thanks to the deployment of wind and solar power, alongside a rebound in hydroelectric power and nuclear power.
- Emissions outside the power sector increased, revealing a lack of progress in transport (+1.4%), industry, and buildings (+0.6% combined).
- After sustained reductions in power sector emissions, the power sector now accounts for only 19% of the EU’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.
- To meet its targets, the EU needs to speed up electrification and other decarbonisation measures in transportation, industry and buildings. This is also essential to reduce the bloc’s reliance on imported oil and gas, a key enabler of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
- At the current pace, the EU may fall short of its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets absent faster emission cuts in the transport and industry sectors.
- Emissions increased in Slovenia, Greece, Luxembourg, Belgium and Spain, while Czechia, Bulgaria, and Denmark saw the steepest declines.
Figure 1 – EU CO2 emissions from fossil fuels
Figure 2 – 2024 vs 2023 Change in CO2 emissions by sector
Figure 3 – 2024 vs 2023 Change in EU power generation
Figure 6 – National CO2 emissions from fossil fuels – 2024 vs 2023
The European Union has set climate targets under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), aiming for a 55% reduction in net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Looking further ahead, the EU has been working toward a 90% emissions reduction by 2040 and achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
Using our latest estimates, the current targets translate into a 3.3% annual decrease of fossil fuel emissions between 2024 and 2030. The 2.9% reduction achieved in 2024 still falls short of the pace needed to meet the target. Moreover, much of the progress so far has come from the power sector, which has taken advantage of the easiest decarbonisation opportunities. As its share of emissions falls, further reductions will require significant efforts to decarbonise transport, industry, and buildings, where emissions reductions are more challenging and often require major technological shifts.
Update – 4 April 2025: The intermediary EU emission target year was incorrectly stated as 2035 in the original report. The correct target year is 2030. Figure 4 has been updated to reflect this correction, and the required average annual decrease in fossil fuel CO₂ emissions between 2024 and 2030 is now estimated at 3.3%.
