In the first half of 2024, China’s air quality improved as fine particulate matter (PM2.5) dropped by 2.9% compared to the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment. Levels of coarse particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulphur dioxide (SO2) have also decreased year-on-year.
This positive development follows a challenging 2023, which saw a 3.4% rebound in PM2.5 levels after a decade of continuous decline in air pollution across the country. In 2023, air pollution rose after ‘zero-COVID-19’ controls were lifted, as increased oil and coal consumption in the transport and power sectors outweighed the decline in emissions from reduced real estate-related production.
The ongoing decline in the real estate industry and the rapid expansion of clean energy likely explain the decrease in air pollutant levels. In the first half of 2024, cement production fell by 10.0%, and the output of pig iron and crude steel significantly decreased. Additionally, the swift growth in clean energy, which has fully met the year’s increased electricity demand, has helped reduce both carbon emissions and air pollution.
Despite the reduction of certain pollutants, ozone pollution has however increased year-on-year in the first half of 2024. This rise is largely driven by the rapidly expanding chemicals industry and non-ferrous metals industry, major sources of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), which are key ozone precursors. In the first half of 2024, the industrial added values of the chemicals industry and the nonferrous industry grew by 10.5% and 11.1%, respectively, with continued investment exacerbating the challenge of reducing ozone pollution.
Key findings
- PM2.5 decreased amid structural shift in industries: A significant rise in clean power generation, coupled with the downturn in heavy industries tied to the real estate sector, led to a reduction in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels of 2.9% during the first half of 2024, which also aligns with the decrease in carbon emissions seen in the second quarter.
- Rising ozone levels: Ozone levels continue to rise in China, despite reductions in the concentration of all other air pollutants. The expansion of the chemicals and non-ferrous metals industries in China has fuelled emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), which are key precursors of ozone.
- Regional disparity in air quality improvements: Southwestern provinces saw the most significant air quality improvement in the first half of 2024, driven by a shift from coal to hydropower due to extreme rainfall. However, PM2.5 levels continued to rise along the eastern coast, while ozone concentrations surged in the northern region, highlighting the urgent need for a transition to clean energy and higher quality industrial development in these areas.
