Lephalale Coal Mine (Pty) Ltd (LCM) plans to develop a new coal mine and independent power plant (IPP) in Lephalale, in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. Gondwana Environmental Solutions International (GESI) was commissioned by LCM to quantify the air quality impacts of the LCM in an environmental impact assessment (GESI, 2017).

Due to several major methodological limitations in the GESI (2017) assessment, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) was commissioned by the Centre for Environmental Rights (CER) to evaluate the air quality, health, and economic impacts of air pollutant emissions from the LCM (coal mine and IPP) and surrounding sources (Medupi and Matimba power stations, and Grootgeluk coal mine) for the entire project lifecycle of 35 years. CREA has evaluated the previous environmental impact assessment (GESI, 2017) and published the findings.

CREA’s report found that the GESI (2017) assessment leads to underestimates in the air quality, human health, and economic impacts of the LCM project, due to neglecting:

• Pollutants (mercury)
• Existing sources of pollution in the region
• Additional pathways of air pollution formation (secondary PM_2.5)
• Impacts of pollutants on health and economics
• Integrated impacts over the whole 35-year project lifecycle
• Long-range impacts of air pollution on distant communities
• Potential for higher emissions (if coal is burnt at nearby power plants which do not have emission control technologies for SO₂)
• Uncertainty in emissions (fails to consider worst-case scenario)
• Air quality standards (uses incorrect value for the South African guideline annual-mean PM_2.5 concentration).  

We calculated how air pollution (PM_2.5, NO₂, SO₂) from the LCM project (35 years) will impact human health, and how this added health burden will impact the South African economy, and make the following findings: 

• Air pollution from coal mining at the LCM project will lead to an additional 93 premature deaths and a wide range of morbidity outcomes, including  preterm (75) and underweight (76) births
• The economic cost of air pollution health impacts from mining at the LCM project will cost USD 75 million
• These health and economic impacts increase by a factor of 30 if the coal is burnt on-site at the LCM, and by a further factor of 10 if the coal is burnt at Medupi or Matimba, as these sites lack several key emission control technologies 
• For instance, combined emissions from coal mined and burnt on-site at the LCM will lead to an estimated 3,000 premature deaths, and a corresponding economic cost of approximately USD 2.5 billion
• Combined emissions from coal mined at LCM and burnt at either Medupi or Matimba will lead to approximately 40,000 premature deaths and an economic cost of USD 30 billion 

We calculated how mercury from the LCM project (35 years) will impact human health, and make the following findings: 

• Emissions from the LCM project (mine and IPP) will lead to a loss of 3,700 IQ points and ~500 lives
• These health damages will cost the economy USD ~600 million

We calculated the existing health risks for local residents of Lephalale due to existing air pollution from Medupi and Matimba power plants and the Grootgeluk mine, and then also calculated the additional risk due to emissions from the LCM (mine and on-site combustion), and make the following findings:

• Existing air pollution in Lephalale from Medupi and Matimba power plants and the Grootgeluk mine increase the risk of a wide range of health outcomes for local residents, including preterm birth (3 %) and premature mortality (2 %)
• The mining and on-site burning of coal at the LCM project will increase increase the health risks due to air pollution for local residents of Lephalale,  including chronic bronchitis in both adults (17 %) and children (12 %)

We calculated violations of the South African guideline values for air pollutant concentrations, and make the following findings:

• Nearby communities to the LCM project are most sensitive to violations in air quality guideline values
• For these locations most affected by the LCM development area, when we consider emissions from the LCM (mine and IPP) and all existing sources, we detect exceedances in all air quality standards — PM₁₀ (daily and annual), NO₂ (hourly), SO₂ (hourly and daily), and PM_2.5 (daily and annual)
• These exceedances of air quality guidelines are not only restricted to nearby communities
• For instance,  the guideline value for daily average PM_2.5 concentrations is exceeded for over 20 million residents when considering emissions from the LCM mine and existing sources
• The guideline value for daily guideline average PM₁₀ concentrations is exceeded for over 500,000 inhabitants when considering emissions from the LCM mine and existing major sources
• The guideline value for hourly average SO₂ concentrations is the exceeded for over 2 million residents when considering emissions from the LCM IPP and existing sources

We calculated how the LCM project will affect the emissions and deposition of mercury, and make the following findings:

• Mining and burning of the coal at LCM would emit around 840 kg of mercury into the atmosphere each year
• Around 30 % of this emitted mercury will be deposited into freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems within the region
• This includes deposition of mercury into sensitive and protected ecosystems, such as Waterberg Biosphere Reserve, Marakele National Park, Magaliesberg Biosphere Reserve, and Spruytskloof and Nungu Private Nature Reserves
• The combined emissions from the LCM (mine and IPP) and from existing sources leads to mercury deposition rates of 1,000 mg/ha/year, which is 2-3 times higher than deposition rates measured elsewhere in South Africa (Johannesburg and Cape Town) 
• This increased mercury could impact human and ecosystem health, as this pollutant  is a potent neurotoxin that bioaccumulates in marine and terrestrial food webs