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This briefing is the third in a series of joint reports between the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) on captive coal in Indonesia and summarizes the past year and three-year developments of Indonesia’s captive coal power sector – which refers to industrial coal power not connected to the national grid.
Key findings
- Coal growth in Indonesia’s stagnant national power grid is being dwarfed by an explosive, nickel-driven captive coal surge, with a total of 4.49 gigawatts (GW) of industrial off-grid captive coal capacity now marked operational between Global Energy Monitor’s (GEM) releases in July 2024 and July 2025.
- Captive coal accounted for about 80% of all year-over-year coal additions, with growth concentrated in the nickel hubs of Central Sulawesi and North Maluku, which have seen capacity more than double since 2023.
- Projects in development would put Indonesia’s total captive coal capacity over 31 GW, triple the nation’s 2023 total captive coal power capacity, eclipsing Australia’s current total coal fleet (22.8 GW), and tying with Germany’s operating fleet (32.3 GW).
- GEM identifies 7.95 GW total from nine announced captive projects and 160 MW from one pre-permitted project, while Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) captive power study – the only attempt by the government to map the expansion – presents an inconsistent baseline by tabulating 4.45 GW of planned capacity but citing only 3.1 GW in its text and omitting all announced projects.*
- The JETP study includes severe regulatory loopholes, such as exemptions for national strategic projects, but no credible attempt to implement the cancellation of planned captive coal projects. By ignoring this demand, the current plan largely underestimates realistic clean energy needs, failing to plan and implement industrial projects in a way that enables them to be powered by clean energy.
- CREA analysis shows that short-term gains are leading to long-term economic erosion, as nickel hub profits peak in year five and then are consumed by environmental costs by year eight. CREA also projects excluding captive coal from retirement targets will cause 27,000 additional air pollution-related deaths and USD 20 billion in economic burden cumulatively.
- The proliferation of ‘sacrifice zones’ poses a critical risk, a reality confirmed by the December 2025 Poso District Court ruling which found nickel operators liable for unlawful environmental destruction. This jeopardizes Indonesia’s place in global supply chains as markets increasingly scrutinise and reject high-carbon products.
*EDITORIAL NOTE, 4 February 2026 — A footnote has been added to page 18 of this report to clarify that the JETP Captive Power Thematic Report included the reasoning behind differing cited captive coal power capacity totals. Specifically, 1.1 GW shifted from permitted to under construction, leading to a tally of 5.5 GW under construction and 3.1 GW planned at the time of release. Consequently, JETP scenario modeling proceeded with these figures while outlining an Asset-Level Alternatives Analysis for 4.452 GW across ten projects. This update reflects the dynamic nature of asset development, and was made following commentary submitted by a member of the JETP Captive Power Study Thematic Report editorial board.
