EU imports of Russian gas have fallen but without sanctions
EU imports of Russian gas are down 70% in Q1 2025 compared to pre-invasion levels (Q1 2021) – LNG imports up +67% but pipeline gas down -90%.
The drop in EU pipeline flows were not due to EU sanctions on Russian gas but due to payment issues, sabotage of energy infrastructure & the expired transit agreement.
The EU paid Russia USD 105.6 billion for their gas imports since the start of the invasion of Ukraine – (75% of the entire 2024 Russian military budget).
EU imports of Russian LNG are on the rise
Which Member States are importing Russian LNG? 87% of all EU imports of Russian LNG arrived in Spain, France or Belgium – but LNG arriving at these terminals does not necessarily stay in these countries.
France: Increased imports by 46% to 7.7 bcm.
Spain: Saw a 12% decline to 5.7 bcm.
Belgium: Imports dropped by 21% to 5.1 bcm.
Netherlands: Recorded an 81% surge, reaching 1.7 bcm.
EU imports of Russian LNG rose 9% year-on-year, while imports from other sources including the US declined.
Russia is hugely reliant on the EU market for its gas exports, providing 52% of its LNG export revenue.
EU paid USD 8.5 bn for Russian LNG during the third year of invasion.
EU imports of US LNG hit record levels in March 2025
EU imports of US LNG have risen since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine – reaching an all time high in March 2025.
In the most recent 12 months however (Apr-24 to Mar-25), EU imports from the US were 14% lower than the prior 12 months.
EU struggles to decouple from Russian gas supplies
RePower EU plan states an end to Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027 — not legally binding.
Long-term contracts that European buyers have for Russian LNG run until 2040 — legal bans are required to: 1) Stop a ‘blame game’ between MS’s. 2) Enable a force majeure in contracts.
EU has struggled to attain sufficient non-Russian gas supply — 9.6% higher in the third year of the invasion compared to the year before the invasion.
What next, will the US increase exports of LNG to Europe?
The US should avoid encouraging or participating in the revival of NordStream2 or Ukrainian gas transit, which could supply the EU with 70 bcm of gas—equivalent to projected 2025 US LNG exports to the EU.
Some European firms have recently secured deals with US LNG projects, including SEFE with Delfin & TotalEnergies with NextDecade.
Chinese imports of US LNG could be redirected to the EU as they face high tariffs.
Policy recommendations
Implement legally binding targets & a full Russian LNG ban that would break long-term contracts currently prohibiting the EU from achieving its RePower EU plan
Set binding targets to prevent backsliding on Russian energy: The EU must ensure long-term energy security, preventing any rollback under economic or political pressure.
EU transshipment ban
The EU must ban Russian LNG transshipments between Member States.
Greater transparency in EU gas markets
Require gas traders & importers to disclose the full supply chain, including the original extraction country & company.
Russian LNG price cap policy in the wind-down period to a full ban
Set a cap at €17/MWh, aligning with the breakeven cost for Russian LNG exports to Europe, limiting Russia’s profit margin. The cap should limit the volume that can be imported to encourage a phase out of Russian LNG.
