As the new European Commission takes charge, it must redefine EU energy independence amid a volatile global landscape and Trump presidency on the horizon
Following the US election last week that saw Donald Trump elected as the 47th president of the United States, a report has surfaced detailing a potential proposal by the U.S. President-elect to halt Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The plan allegedly involves ‘freezing’ the conflict by creating autonomous regions on each side of a demilitarised zone and keeping Ukraine out of NATO. Yet, the proposal is just as notable for what it leaves unsaid: what would become of the sweeping Western sanctions against Russia, particularly those targeting its oil and gas sectors.
One possible future scenario could be that the incoming U.S. administration might leverage the energy sanctions in negotiations with Moscow, offering to lift them in exchange for a ceasefire.
In this context, the new European Commission has a rare historic opportunity to show leadership, setting a clear path away from Russian fossil fuels and supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty in words and sustained and strategic action. Europe must stay the course, holding firm on its commitment to both end its reliance on, and maintain its sanctions on, Russian fossil fuels. In the short term, this would mean limiting the revenue that fuels Russia’s aggression against Ukraine; in the longer term, it would weaken Moscow’s ability to finance its military.
This vision also aligns with the EU’s RePowerEU initiative, which aims to phase out Russian energy by 2027. Yet, despite its ambitious goals, RePowerEU’s implementation has encountered significant challenges, creating gaps that Moscow continues to exploit. The new Commission has a pivotal opportunity to address these issues, bolster the EU’s energy security, and reaffirm its commitment to Ukraine.
The EU’s embargo on Russian oil represented a significant show of solidarity to Ukraine. However, exemptions for landlocked member states have allowed Russian crude to continue flowing into EU markets, complicating efforts to reduce reliance on Moscow. In the first half of 2024, Hungary and Slovakia reduced their Russian crude imports by only 4% and 3% year-on-year, respectively, sending EUR 1.9 billion to Russia.
Exemptions are not the only way Russian fossil fuels enter the EU market. Oil products refined from Russian crude frequently reach EU shores through third countries. In the first three quarters of 2024, EU countries imported 12.3 million tonnes of refined oil products from India, China, and Turkey, with 4.8 million tonnes—worth EUR 3.6 billion—directly sourced from Russian crude.
To address this issue effectively, the new EC should consider implementing clear guidelines and firm deadlines for phasing out Russian oil imports from landlocked member states. Establishing specific timelines will help ensure that these exemptions do not hinder progress. Additionally, the Commission should address the refining loophole and explore imposing restrictions on refineries that rely heavily on Russian crude, further supporting the goal of reducing dependency on Russian energy sources.
The challenge of Russian oil extends beyond imports; it also involves ‘shadow’ tankers that operate outside maritime regulatory frameworks. These vessels, often uninsured and unregulated, pose environmental risks as they transport Russian oil through EU waterways, circumventing sanctions and price caps. These ‘shadow’ vessels enable Russia to evade sanctions by transporting oil from Baltic Sea ports through heavily trafficked EU straits, including Denmark, Dover, and Gibraltar.
The risk of ecological disaster raises essential concerns. A robust response to this vulnerability is crucial, with sanctions becoming a collaborative priority across various sectors, including energy and environmental safety. Previous Western sanctions have proven effective, leading many vessels to either scale back their operations or stop entirely. Europe can effectively tackle this urgent threat by closely collaborating with the United States and other allies to limit access to Russia’s ‘shadow’ tankers.
Despite ongoing imports of Russian oil, natural gas remains a significant vulnerability for the EU. While Brussels touts a reduced dependence on Russian gas, much of this shift can be attributed to Moscow’s manoeuvres rather than proactive EU policies. Russia has effectively influenced Europe’s energy strategy by selectively cutting supplies to specific Member States. Ironically, even as President Putin has limited gas flows, Russian natural gas imports to the EU surged by 27% year-on-year in the first half of 2024.
Natural gas imports from Russia accounted for about 10% of the EU’s annual consumption in 2023, with dependency levels varying widely among member states. The new EC must consider each country’s capacity and willingness to diversify its gas sources, crafting a strategy that accommodates these differences. Even with a potential future embargo, ongoing gas purchases inadvertently finance Russia’s war efforts. Estimates for annual imports from Russia in 2023 and current natural gas prices in the EU suggest that member states may pay an estimated EUR 11 billion for Russian gas in 2025. Thus, alongside setting end goals, the EU should prioritise mechanisms to limit revenue flowing to Russia during the transition.
Long-term contracts with Russian suppliers complicate matters further, as many extend beyond the RePowerEU 2027 phase-out target, resulting in unenforceable guidelines. Some member states may revert to old trading practices without a clear exit strategy, especially as certain political factions push to reconsider bans on Russian fossil fuels due to economic pressures.
Despite the allure of returning to cheap Russian gas, EU countries must recognize that this short-sighted policy comes at a cost. Relying on affordable Russian gas brings significant political risks that EU citizens have to bear. Therefore, legally binding the RePowerEU goals is crucial in preventing potential backslides and ensuring a more secure energy future.
As the new EU Commission takes office, it faces a pivotal moment to lead decisively on energy. With the incoming U.S. administration hinting at potential shifts in Ukraine policy, Europe’s commitment to reducing reliance on Russian fossil fuels is critical—not only for its security but as a global signal of resolve.
In this context, the EU must prioritise binding policies to end Russian energy imports, countering pressures from factions advocating a return to ‘business as usual’ with Moscow. By doing so, Europe can bolster Ukraine’s position, strengthen its energy independence, and stand as a stable force amid global uncertainty.
This is Europe’s chance to set a lasting course for energy security, showing both internal unity and global leadership in a time of shifting alliances and heightened geopolitical stakes.