🇮🇩 Versi Bahasa Indonesia tersedia di bawah
Key findings
- Under Indonesia’s downstreaming mandate, total alumina production capacity is projected to quadruple from 7 million tonnes in 2025 to 32.5 million tonnes by 2030, driven almost entirely by Smelter-Grade Alumina. Meanwhile, Chemical-Grade Alumina remains flat at 300,000 tonnes, proving investments target primary metals over high-value specialty products.
- This rapid expansion risks both immediate feedstock gridlock and long-term exhaustion: slow-scaling mining cannot instantly match skyrocketing demand, which is estimated to jump from 14 to 65 million tonnes of bauxite ore annually and potentially deplete Indonesia’s proven 1 billion tonne reserve base in under 12 years.
- Indonesia’s aluminium downstreaming is set to be powered with 9.8 GW of captive coal power capacity, with 1.8 GW operational and a further 8 GW highly likely linked to 32 prospective projects, repeating a similar lock-in legacy the nickel boom brings.
- Roughly 75% of Indonesia’s domestic alumina and aluminium projects are tied to Chinese backing. This inflow is driven by China’s strict output cap reaching its threshold, forcing Chinese industrial giants to offshore capital.
- The government’s push for domestic aluminium self-sufficiency is shown in a massive expansion in Mempawah, West Kalimantan, to be fully funded by state-owned superholding, Danantara. The project is opting for 1.25 GW of captive coal over cost-effective clean energy such as solar and storage, a pivot from the global shift toward low-carbon commodities that could permanently derail the sector’s emission trajectory.
Figure — Indonesia alumina-aluminum projects overview: production capacity and captive coal power generation
Figure — Indonesia’s bauxite refinery capacities, current in 2025 and projected in 2030 (top) and all known developments by current project status (bottom)
Figure — Ratio of alumina and aluminium production power sources
