CO2 emissions rise but clean energy surge brings peak closer
China’s success in meeting and exceeding its current climate targets is possibly the single most important factor in the global fight against climate change. As the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter and the main source of emissions growth in the past two decades, China holds a crucial role in global climate efforts. To enable global emissions to peak fast enough, China needs to not only meet but exceed its current emissions commitments.
In this series of annual outlook reports on China’s climate target progress from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the Heinrich Böll Foundation, China’s progress on its climate commitments is assessed against benchmarks for different sectors and variables that can be compared to available data from China. Each one is based on a suite of climate transition scenarios from Chinese and international institutions.
In this second annual edition of the outlook report, CREA reassessed China’s progress towards the country’s climate commitments and towards emissions pathways aligned with the Paris Agreement goals against different benchmarks, and carried out a survey of 89 Chinese energy analysts and experts, a threefold increase from last year’s expert survey.
The assessment found multiple indicators that are on track:
- Clean energy investments
- Electrification
- Building sector coal use
- Steel and cement output
- Construction materials sector emissions
- Electric vehicle sales
China’s economic growth model shifted with real estate construction plummeting and clean energy manufacturing and deployment becoming a key economic driver. Yet, lack of firm emissions targets and continued investment in coal-based capacity keep China’s emission outlook uncertain.
China’s CO2 emissions will increase by at least 4% in 2023, but record clean energy additions have nevertheless brought the emissions peak closer.
China’s deployment of clean energy generation in 2023 has reached the scale projected in 1.5-degree scenarios. Maintaining annual additions of clean electricity production capacity at the 2023 level or increasing them further will enable China to peak and decline its CO2 emissions in the coming years. But to successfully achieve a peaking and rapid decline of emissions, China will also need increased efforts on energy efficiency, and a successful transformation of the economic growth model.
The report release took place in Berlin at the Heinrich Böll Foundation with an online press conference.
