The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and Global Energy Monitor have released their H1 2024 survey of coal power projects in China with the latest analysis suggesting that the massive renewable energy additions may be dampening the country’s coal-based development. 

With new renewable energy installations now capable of meeting all incremental power demand in China, the need for new coal is waning, and there are signs the central government may be embracing this change.

In the first half of 2024, China reduced coal power permits by 83% compared to H1 2023, permitting only 9 gigawatts (GW) in H1 2024¹. Following the surge in coal power permits exceeding 100 GW annually in 2022 and 2023, the current decline in coal power activity is further reflected in the reduction of new and revived coal power proposals, totalling 37 GW in early 2024, down from 60 GW in early 2023.

Despite these encouraging signs, significant challenges persist. In the first half of 2024, construction began on over 41 GW of coal projects, nearly equaling the total that started construction during all of 2022 and constituting more than 90% of global new coal construction activities. Moreover, the government’s goal of bringing 80 GW of coal-fired capacity online in 2024 indicates a potential increase in project completions in the latter half of the year, from 8 GW commissioned in H1 2024.

Key findings

• Following the accelerated permitting of over 100 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power annually in 2022 and 2023, China has abruptly curtailed approvals for new coal power plants, approving just twelve projects totaling 9 GW in H1 2024, an 83% decline compared to H1 2023. 
• New and revived proposals in H1 2024 totaling 37.4 GW are also trending lower than in H1 2023 (60.2 GW) and H1 2022 (47.8 GW), indicating a possible tapering of new project development – although not at the same pace as the permit slowdown.
• Since 2023, China has added over 400 GW of new solar and wind power, driving down China’s coal power generation by 7% from June 2023 to June 2024.
• If renewables continue to cut into coal generation then a peak in China’s CO2 emissions – pledged to happen before 2030 – is on the horizon, if not already here. 

Addressing coal power projects permitted during the 2022-23 frenzy remains a challenge: 

• Coal power construction activity in H1 2024 remained robust, with over 41 GW of projects initiated, nearly matching the total for all of 2022, and accounting for more than 90% of the total global new construction activities. 
• While just over 8 GW of coal power was commissioned in H1 2024, the government’s target of commissioning 80 GW of coal-fired power capacity in 2024 suggests a potential surge in project completions in the second half of the year. 

Policy recommendations

To help China peak emissions and avoid a costly build-up of new coal plants, we propose the following policy recommendations.

• Limit the construction of new coal power plants; speed up retirements, cancel projects that were already permitted in violation of policy.
• Stop organizing  the signing and fulfillment of medium- to long-term coal purchase agreements between coal miners and coal power plants.
• Prioritize grid reform, energy storage solutions, and other clean technologies to pave the way for significant emission reductions. Expediting the development of a robust spot market can further optimize China’s power grid, allowing the integration of more renewable energy sources.
• Support the rapid and continuous expansion of clean energy generation to accelerate the transition towards a low-carbon energy future.
• Establish ambitious and measurable coal consumption reduction targets and new renewable energy expansion targets in China’s next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and 15th Five-Year Plan.

1.  The 9 GW figure for H1 2024 is based on the best available data at the time of publication of this report. As more comprehensive data becomes available, it is possible that the actual number of permits issued may be slightly higher. Nonetheless, the overall trend of a significant reduction in coal power permits remains clear.